Daily Picks — May 13, 2026
No games cleared the 3.0% edge threshold today across 15 evaluable matchups. When the market prices the board correctly, discipline beats forcing plays — standing down on thin slates is a feature, not a bug.
Passes (market looks fair)
HOU vs SEA — market prices Seattle 54¢, Houston 46¢, but we're waiting on Seattle's starter announcement before evaluating.
SF at LAD — San Francisco shows an 8.4% edge on paper, but our model only gives them 39% to win outright; won't back a team we don't project to take the game.
ATL vs CHC — Atlanta carries a 7.9% edge against Chicago's 56¢ pricing, but the model sees just 52% win probability; too close to back the outright winner.
TB at TOR — Tampa Bay holds a 5.0% edge at 42¢, but the model projects only 47% to win; no conviction on the outright result.
WSH at CIN — Washington shows a 4.9% edge at 41¢, but our model gives them just 46% to win; won't back a team we don't project to take it.
BAL vs NYY — Baltimore carries a 3.4% edge against New York's 60¢ pricing, but the model sees only 43% win probability; no play without outright conviction.
COL at PIT — Colorado shows a 3.4% edge at 36¢, but our model projects just 40% to win; won't back a team we don't see taking the game.
STL at OAK — market prices St. Louis 44¢, Oakland 56¢; edge sits at 3.0%, just touching our pass floor.
CWS vs KC — Kansas City priced at 52¢ with Chicago at 48¢; 2.9% edge falls below our threshold.
LAA at CLE — Los Angeles shows 2.8% edge at 42¢ against Cleveland's 60¢; market looks appropriately priced.
MIN vs MIA — Miami at 54¢, Minnesota 46¢; 2.8% edge doesn't clear our minimum bar.
TEX vs ARI — Arizona 48¢, Texas 52¢; 2.7% edge stays within market noise.
NYM vs DET — Dead even at 50¢ each with just 1.1% edge; market nailed this one.
BOS vs PHI — Philadelphia 44¢, Boston 56¢; 0.5% edge confirms fair pricing.
MIL vs SD — San Diego 44¢, Milwaukee 57¢; 0.4% edge shows the market got it right.
Sometimes the sharpest play is no play at all.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+. Market prices sourced from prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), not traditional sportsbooks.