Daily Picks — April 25, 2026
The Friday slate delivers 1 max-conviction play and 14 passes across 15 games. Baltimore's pitching edge over Boston anchors the bankroll while the rest of the board splits between value-without-conviction spots and genuinely fair pricing.
Max Conviction (5u+)
BAL vs BOS — Baltimore 5.00u
The Orioles are getting 50-50 money at home against a Red Sox team that's been bleeding runs all month. Baltimore carries a 4.54 RA/G through 26 games while Boston sits at 4.77 RA/G — not a massive gap, but the pitching matchup tilts this decisively toward the home side.
Trevor Rogers takes the ball for Baltimore with a 3.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through four starts. Across the diamond, Garrett Crochet has been getting hammered to the tune of a 7.58 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same sample. That's not a small-sample fluke — that's batting practice masquerading as major league pitching.
The offensive numbers favor Baltimore as well. The Orioles are plating 4.65 runs per game compared to Boston's 3.65 R/G, giving them nearly a full run advantage in production. With Rogers keeping the ball in the yard and Crochet serving up meatballs, this shapes up as a get-right spot for Baltimore's lineup.
The market has this dead even at 50¢, but our model sees Baltimore winning 59.1% of the time — a 9.1% edge that merits maximum conviction. The Red Sox pitching continues to do its impression of batting practice at 4.77 RA/G, and Crochet's 7.58 ERA suggests more of the same tonight.
Passes (market looks fair)
ATL vs PHI — standing down until Philadelphia announces their starter.
COL at NYM — edge +14.5% but model projects Colorado at 50% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
LAA at KC — edge +8.6% but model projects Los Angeles at 51% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
STL vs SEA — edge +7.8% but model projects St. Louis at 50% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
CHC at LAD — edge +5.6% but model projects Chicago at 48% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
CLE at TOR — edge +4.8% but model projects Cleveland at 49% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
PIT at MIL — edge +3.7% but model projects Pittsburgh at 48% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
HOU vs NYY — edge +3.5% but model projects Houston at 46% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
OAK at TEX — edge +3.0% but model projects Oakland at 47% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
MIN at TB — edge +3.0% but model projects Minnesota at 47% win probability, won't back the outright winner.
WSH at CWS — edge +2.5%, below our 3.0% pass floor.
CIN vs DET — edge +0.9%, market priced correctly at 50¢ each.
MIA at SF — edge +0.5%, market looks fair at 47¢/53¢.
ARI vs SD — edge +0.0%, dead heat pricing matches our projection.
The slate concentrates on Baltimore's pitching advantage; everything else either lacks conviction or sits fairly priced.
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