Reds at Guardians — MLB Odds, Starters, Weather · Saturday, May 16, 2026
Reds
35-36
FINAL
4–7
Guardians
39-35
FINAL · TOP 9TH
CIN
4✓CLE
7LAST PITCade Smith17P
LAST BATNathaniel LoweL
FINAL PLAY · Nathaniel Lowe lines out sharply to left fielder Steven Kwan.
MONEYLINE · IMPLIED PROBABILITY
CIN
1¢
POLY0¢
KALSHI1¢
CLE
100¢
POLY100¢
KALSHI100¢
DISPERSION 1¢ · venues aligned · $6,004,458 combined volume · UPDATED 33D AGO
OUR TAKE · SPORTSSLATEAI MODEL
GENERATED 34D AGO
Market has CIN at 38.0¢ with a +3.7% edge on paper, but the model only projects them to win 42% of the time. Value without conviction — no play.
RESULT: LOSS·CIN 4-7 CLE
VENUE
Progressive Field
ROOF
Open
WEATHER
71°F · Overcast
SW 11mph · 20% precip
WATCH
Guardians.TV · Reds.TV
STARTERS
Chris Paddack (R)
CIN · 9 GS
ERA
6.96
WHIP
1.66
K/9
6.62
BB/9
3.23
IP
53.0
Joey Cantillo (L)
CLE · 15 GS
ERA
4.38
WHIP
1.49
K/9
8.38
BB/9
4.50
IP
72.0
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CIN · 3-2 L5
W 2-1
vsARI · 6/13
L 3-5
vsARI · 6/14
W 12-0
vsNYM · 6/15
W 5-3
vsNYM · 6/16
L 1-9
vsNYM · 6/17
OLDEST → LATEST
CLE · 2-3 L5
L 4-8
vsNYY · 6/10
W 3-2
vsDET · 6/12
W 3-1
vsDET · 6/13
L 1-2
@MIL · 6/16
L 4-9
@MIL · 6/17
OLDEST → LATEST
INJURIES
P
Caleb Ferguson
Oblique muscle strain
15-DAY · 55D
P
Hunter Greene
Right elbow surgery
60-DAY · 54D
3B
Eugenio Suárez
Mild left oblique strain
10-DAY · 23D
P
Emilio Pagán
Left hamstring strain
15-DAY · 10D
P
Brandon Williamson
Left shoulder fatigue
15-DAY · 10D
P
Rhett Lowder
Right shoulder pain
15-DAY · 3D
SS
Gabriel Arias
Left hamdsring strain
10-DAY · 39D
P
Shawn Armstrong
Right groin strain
15-DAY · 23D
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+. Market prices sourced from prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), not traditional sportsbooks.