Phillies at Marlins — MLB Odds, Starters, Weather · Monday, May 4, 2026
Phillies
36-31
FINAL
1–0
Marlins
33-35
FINAL · BOT 9TH
✓PHI
1MIA
0LAST PITBrad Keller10P
LAST BATLiam HicksL
FINAL PLAY · Liam Hicks grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper.
MONEYLINE · IMPLIED PROBABILITY
PHI
100¢
POLY100¢
KALSHI100¢
MIA
1¢
POLY0¢
KALSHI1¢
DISPERSION 1¢ · venues aligned · $2,084,207 combined volume · UPDATED 37D AGO
OUR TAKE · SPORTSSLATEAI MODEL
GENERATED 37D AGO
MIA49.0¢6.07U · MAX
EDGE+11.3%
Miami holds a significant pitching advantage with Janson Junk's 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against Aaron Nola's struggling 6.03 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The Marlins also boast superior run prevention at 4.3 runs allowed per game compared to Philadelphia's porous 5.2, while matching their offensive output at 4.3 runs scored. This is our biggest call on the board.
RESULT: LOSS·MIA 0-1 PHI
-6.07u
VENUE
loanDepot park
ROOF
Retractable
WEATHER
77°F · Overcast
NE 11mph · 19% precip
WATCH
Marlins.TV · NBCSP
STARTERS
Aaron Nola (R)
PHI · 13 GS
ERA
5.86
WHIP
1.45
K/9
9.27
BB/9
3.00
IP
66.0
Janson Junk (R)
MIA · 11 GS
ERA
4.80
WHIP
1.30
K/9
6.45
BB/9
1.95
IP
60.0
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PHI · 3-2 L5
L 3-6
vsCWS · 6/6
W 9-5
vsCWS · 6/7
W 5-2
@TOR · 6/8
L 2-3
@TOR · 6/9
W 7-4
@TOR · 6/10
OLDEST → LATEST
MIA · 4-1 L5
L 0-6
vsTB · 6/5
W 4-3
vsTB · 6/6
W 4-1
vsTB · 6/7
W 10-6
vsARI · 6/9
W 8-0
vsARI · 6/10
OLDEST → LATEST
INJURIES
P
Zach Pop
Right calf strain
15-DAY · 21D
P
Jhoan Duran
Left oblique strain
15-DAY · 19D
P
Max Lazar
Left oblique strain
15-DAY · 12D
P
Kyle Backhus
Left elbow inflammation
15-DAY · 7D
P
Ronny Henriquez
Right Elbow Surgery
60-DAY · 81D
P
Adam Mazur
Right elbow surgery
60-DAY · 40D
LF
Griffin Conine
Left hamstring strain
10-DAY · 24D
P
Pete Fairbanks
Nerve irritation
15-DAY · 6D
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