Padres at Mariners — MLB Odds, Starters, Weather · Saturday, May 16, 2026
Padres
38-35
FINAL
7–4
Mariners
38-37
FINAL · BOT 9TH
✓SD
7SEA
4LAST PITJeremiah Estrada17P
LAST BATJosh NaylorL
FINAL PLAY · Josh Naylor grounds out, first baseman Gavin Sheets to pitcher Jeremiah Estrada.
MONEYLINE · IMPLIED PROBABILITY
SD
100¢
POLY100¢
KALSHI100¢
SEA
1¢
POLY0¢
KALSHI1¢
DISPERSION 1¢ · venues aligned · $2,510,302 combined volume · UPDATED 33D AGO
OUR TAKE · SPORTSSLATEAI MODEL
GENERATED 34D AGO
Market has SD at 40.0¢ with a +5.6% edge on paper, but the model only projects them to win 46% of the time. Value without conviction — no play.
RESULT: WIN·SD 7-4 SEA
VENUE
T-Mobile Park
ROOF
Retractable
WEATHER
55°F · Partly Cloudy
NW 9mph · 36% precip
WATCH
FOX
STARTERS
Walker Buehler (R)
SD · 14 GS
ERA
4.14
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.75
BB/9
2.94
IP
67.3
Logan Gilbert (R)
SEA · 15 GS
ERA
3.43
WHIP
1.03
K/9
9.55
BB/9
2.08
IP
86.7
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SD · 3-2 L5
W 9-3
@BAL · 6/13
W 5-2
@BAL · 6/14
L 0-3
@STL · 6/15
L 2-3
@STL · 6/16
W 6-1
@STL · 6/17
OLDEST → LATEST
SEA · 2-3 L5
W 10-2
@WSH · 6/12
L 3-8
@WSH · 6/13
L 1-10
@WSH · 6/14
W 3-1
vsBAL · 6/16
L 3-5
vsBAL · 6/17
OLDEST → LATEST
INJURIES
P
Jhony Brito
Right elbow surgery, UCL reconstruction
60-DAY · 89D
P
Yu Darvish
Details pending
RESTRICTED · 52D
P
Nick Pivetta
Right elbow inflammation
15-DAY · 33D
P
Bryan Hoeing
Torn right elbow flexor tendon
15-DAY · 24D
P
Germán Márquez
Forearm nerve inflammation
15-DAY · 14D
2B
Jake Cronenworth
Concussion symptoms
7-DAY · 11D
C
Luis Campusano
Left toe fracture
10-DAY · 9D
P
Joe Musgrove
Details pending
15-DAY · 9D
P
Matt Waldron
Right brachialis muscle injury
15-DAY · 1D
P
Logan Evans
Recovery from torn UCL in right arm
60-DAY · 89D
P
Carlos Vargas
Right lat strain
15-DAY · 53D
RF
Victor Robles
Right pec strain
10-DAY · 39D
1B
Patrick Wisdom
Left oblique strain
10-DAY · 31D
3B
Miles Mastrobuoni
Right calf strain
60-DAY · 26D
3B
Will Wilson
Left thumb fracture
10-DAY · 16D
P
Matt Brash
Right lat inflammation
15-DAY · 16D
P
Gabe Speier
Left shoulder inflammation
15-DAY · 13D
C
Cal Raleigh
Right oblique strain
10-DAY · 2D
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+. Market prices sourced from prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), not traditional sportsbooks.