Orioles at Yankees — MLB Odds, Starters, Weather · Monday, May 4, 2026
Orioles
32-35
FINAL
1–12
Yankees
41-26
FINAL · TOP 9TH
BAL
1✓NYY
12LAST PITPaul Blackburn17P
LAST BATAdley RutschmanL
FINAL PLAY · Adley Rutschman grounds out, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to pitcher Paul Blackburn.
MONEYLINE · IMPLIED PROBABILITY
BAL
1¢
POLY0¢
KALSHI1¢
NYY
100¢
POLY100¢
KALSHI100¢
DISPERSION 1¢ · venues aligned · $3,744,414 combined volume · UPDATED 37D AGO
OUR TAKE · SPORTSSLATEAI MODEL
GENERATED 37D AGO
The model sees Baltimore at 36.2% against the market's 32.9%, creating a small edge on paper. However, with the Yankees holding clear advantages in run differential (+1.91 vs -0.73) and starting pitching (Schlittler's 1.51 ERA vs Baz's 4.50), we're standing down on what projects as a coin flip.
RESULT: LOSS·BAL 1-12 NYY
VENUE
Yankee Stadium
ROOF
Open
WEATHER
68°F · Clear
S 8mph
WATCH
YES · MASN
STARTERS
Shane Baz (R)
BAL · 13 GS
ERA
4.09
WHIP
1.38
K/9
7.71
BB/9
3.51
IP
77.0
Cam Schlittler (R)
NYY · 14 GS
ERA
1.87
WHIP
0.87
K/9
9.77
BB/9
1.54
IP
82.0
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BAL · 1-4 L5
L 4-6
@TOR · 6/6
L 4-6
@TOR · 6/7
L 3-6
vsSEA · 6/8
L 5-6
vsSEA · 6/9
W 7-2
vsSEA · 6/10
OLDEST → LATEST
NYY · 4-1 L5
L 3-5
vsBOS · 6/5
W 6-1
vsBOS · 6/7
W 7-5
@CLE · 6/8
W 3-2
@CLE · 6/9
W 8-4
@CLE · 6/10
OLDEST → LATEST
INJURIES
P
Colin Selby
Right shoulder inflammation
60-DAY · 79D
2B
Jackson Holliday
Right hamate surgery
10-DAY · 43D
LF
Heston Kjerstad
Right hamstring strain
10-DAY · 43D
3B
Jordan Westburg
Right elbow UCL sprain
10-DAY · 33D
P
Zach Eflin
Right elbow discomfort
15-DAY · 27D
P
Yaramil Hiraldo
Right shoulder inflammation
15-DAY · 21D
1B
Ryan Mountcastle
Left foot fracture
60-DAY · 21D
P
Dean Kremer
Right quad strain
15-DAY · 14D
P
Trevor Rogers
Illness
15-DAY · 8D
P
Ryan Helsley
Right elbow inflammation
15-DAY · 5D
P
Clarke Schmidt
Right forearm tightness
60-DAY · 81D
SS
Anthony Volpe
Left shoulder surgery recovery
10-DAY · 43D
P
Carlos Rodón
Left elbow surgery recovery
15-DAY · 43D
P
Gerrit Cole
Tommy John surgery recovery
15-DAY · 40D
P
Angel Chivilli
Right shoulder discomfort
15-DAY · 11D
DH
Giancarlo Stanton
Right calf strain
10-DAY · 9D
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